5 Thoughts: The long-awaited return of Byron Buxton -- too late for the Twins?

The 'measuring stick' week vs. the Astros and Yankees didn't go well, but Monday the team is expecting several key reinforcements.

1) Twins expecting a huge boost tonight with several key returns.

[The moves were not official at the time this newsletter is sent each week, so I will follow up with some quick analysis once they’re made. I have my hunches but you’d rather get it right than get it in early.]

Byron Buxton’s pending return to the lineup is great news for the offense, although it hasn’t been the offense missing him as much lately. It’s the pitchers and his corner outfield teammates who really will notice a significant boost with Buxton roaming around in the big part of the outfield grass. How big of a boost? We shouldn’t trust defensive numbers in small samples, and we should use our eyes, but with the important distinction that messing up one play that leads to runs will leave a big imprint in our memory, and we’re not very good at scaling for a full season to compare – nor are we good at picturing the average outcome, like the number of times that a guy might have made a catch if he was given 10 tri…

This post is for paid subscribers